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 2012  agosto 21 Martedì calendario

Nuclear Power in the Middle East Following Fukashima Adnan Shihab-Eldin1 International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Italy 19 -24 August 2012 Abstract This paper comments on the significance of Fukushima both technically and with regard to public opinion

Nuclear Power in the Middle East Following Fukashima Adnan Shihab-Eldin1 International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Italy 19 -24 August 2012 Abstract This paper comments on the significance of Fukushima both technically and with regard to public opinion. On the former, it is argued that the culture of the industry and resultant history are overwhelmingly more important indicators of the safety of nuclear power. Although in the wake of Fukushima, safety improvements are being made, in the resultant politics, it is probable that costs are being increased to address combinations of events of negligible probability and attention diverted from more proactive assessments. However, the effect on public opinion has been decisively negative and lasting . The MENA context of rationale, cost and political environments are discussed. The impending crisis of domestic use of hydrocarbon resources in the Gulf States is presented and the alternative path of sustainable energy is demonstrated using the example of Kuwait. It is suggested that the concentration on supply solutions, whilst expedient, is not optimum and that the much more challenging, and ultimately more significant issue of demand control through tariff increase and sustainable energy policy must be addressed. The requirement for a nuclear contribution to the resultant reduced energy mix in these countries and to address more fundamental energy shortfalls and security issues elsewhere in the region remains strong. Nuclear power programs are summarized and the most significant in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt, in order of certainty, discussed. 1 Lessons of Fukashima It has now been admitted [2] by the Japanese Government that the Fukashima accident was caused by failure to design for known tsunami conditions. It is also probable that seismic design, known to be inadequate, was a contributory factor in accident response. The tsunami design basis chosen was 5.7 M, while 20M events had occurred in the previous century. TEPCO Internal reports to this effect and practical experience of the vulnerability of emergency generators to flooding were available before the accident. The event on 11th March was 14 M. Fukashima was designed in the late 1960